Polls Accuracy are Always Suspect 2024

 By CE Marshall 

2020 Revisited ! 

     I wrote the below blog back after the election of 2020 but it certainly bares repeating after 4 years.  Nothing has changed and the polls have only a very slippery hold on the truth.   All Americans should look at them with scrutiny.  I have also heard other comments regarding polls;  1)  Conservatives tend not to answer them.  2) People are hesitant to admit they're voting for Donald Trump to the pollster asking the questions, in other words-  "Orange Man Bad" syndrome.  3) Polls are more manipulated by the media - both sides- to keep readers engaged and coming back.  They are click- bate.  So, for example, If the media wants the Democrats to look more likely to win  (for whatever reason) they ask a larger than normal base of Democrats "Who are you voting for?" and "voila"  they have the poll results for which they were searching!   Anyway, the more things change, the more they stay the same.  I re-read this blog and nodded in agreement with myself - LOL- "Right on Chuck".  It still confounds me that there is no longer an "Undecided voter"  in poll results.  That use to be one of the main categories, but today in 2024 it doesn't exist.  I think the undecided category of voters must somehow be less profitable to our wonderful "legacy" media- depicted below as Mr. Burns.  One brief comment regarding Mr. Burns- IMHO the Simpson's creators are the geniuses of humor content in the 21st century.  Mr. Burns is such a perfect representation of corporate executives of modern America and the world.  (This goes double for Pharmaceuticals, Big Food and Media giants)  They are so loathsome and despicable to the point of being laughable.  Human seepage.  

Originally posted on November 5, 2020.  

Polls Got it Wrong-- Again

 By Chuck Marshall 

Dear Wise Readers---

Hello fellow Americans-- a few thoughts on opinion polls.

1) Why are they so wrong AGAIN ? They had Biden up by 14% last month, and up by 8% over this past weekend. Statistics is a science, so is the science now wrong ?

2) Why is there no "undecided" category anymore in most polls ? We should believe everyone has made up their mind when called by pollsters?

3) Much like a court argument, survey questions can be very easily manipulated. That's why "leading the witness" is grounds for an argument to be overturned by a judge. If I'm to believe polls I'd like to hear exactly what questions are asked., not "the President's approval rating is down" with no explanation as to how the question was worded.

4) Who are they asking ? Some of these polls seem to have been asked at a the Democratic national convention. We hear "1500 likely voters across the US", but what's the mix ? How many R's, D's and I's ?

5) Most likely, surveys are being manipulated. Remember this isn't your local newspaper bloviating, these are massive, international conglomerates that want things to go a certain way. The truth is a quaint concept that they care about only as long as it's good for their profits and power. Scrutinize, scrutinize, scrutinize and don't be gullible to their narrative.

6) What can you do about it ? Ignore the opinion polls. They are a steaming pile of bullshit. Picture Mr. Burns from the Simpsons when you hear the talking heads blabbing on about what "the American people are thinking". Blah, blah, blah.

In my humble opinion.....

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Argument for a Convention of States - Part 2 - The Biceps of Liberty

By Chuck Marshall

                                                            The Biceps of Liberty 

          

     For those not wrapped up in politics or who are simply not well acquainted with the Constitution, there is an article within the constitution that provides for the power of the states to reign in the federal government.  It's called Article 5.  Why have you never heard of this ?  There are many reasons.  The "powers that be" (or "Mad King George", as it were)  don't want you to know about it because it means they would have less power and influence if it were to be exercised.  In addition, because it has not been exercised this important muscle of the "body politic" has grown fat and flabby.  We, the American people,  have not been working this muscle.   In fact Article 5 has hardly been used at all since it was inserted into the constitution over 200 yeas ago at this writing.   I say it's time to pull out the dumbells and start working the "biceps of liberty" to get our country back to being within control and under the power of the people.  

      Article 5 states this;  "The Congress, whenever two thirds of both houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose amendments to this Constitution, or, on the application of the legislatures of two thirds of the several states, shall call a convention for proposing amendments, which, in either case, shall be valid to all intents and purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the legislatures of three fourths of the several states, or by conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other mode of ratification may be proposed by the Congress; provided that no amendment which may be made prior to the year one thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any manner affect the first and fourth clauses in the ninth section of the first article; and that no state, without its consent, shall be deprived of its equal suffrage in the Senate."

     It's important to note as you read, that it mentions congress and two thirds of both houses, amendments shall be proposed OR "on the application of the legislatures of two thirds of the several states, shall call a convention for proposing amendments".  That's where the Convention of States comes into play.  The reason this is so important is it's highly unlikely anyone in Washington, DC will call for limiting their power at the federal level in favor of the states.  That will not happen.  The only way for the people to truly correct the overreaching power and malevolence of the national government is for them to be forced to give up this power.  They will not enact laws or amendments that reduce their own power.   Our  "Mad King George" has no interest or intention of relinquishing his crown voluntarily.  

In My Humble Opinion, CM 

Role of Government...... to Enforce Manners ?

By Chuck Marshall

Miss Manners

     The title of this blog "Marshall in the Middle"  implies  my belief in a more moderate political angle (and a moderate approach to many things in life, but that's another topic).   I usually see both sides of issues and I feel I usually understand "why" the right or left feels and act as they do.  That being said, I do tend to have ideas that I think are much more pragmatic than other people which leans my core ideas of what the government should and should not be doing towards the right.   I just feel things usually work better without the government involved in the challenging issues of the day.   Case in point;  the responsibilities of the courts to uphold "fairness" in business activities.   Much of this spins from all the recent controversy involved in the state laws  that seem to allow a business to refuse service to a homosexual citizen.   

     If I ran a business, such as restaurant, I would welcome anyone who came in- as long as they behave themselves, are respectful of other customers, and they pay their bill.  To me, this is just good manners and the right thing to do (and - as luck would have it- is congruent to my morals as an active Christian man).  Does that mean everybody else in the world needs to judge "proper" behavior the same way as I do ?  Of course not !  That's why we have different businesses and we should all be free to go where we're comfortable.   If  I, a heterosexual white man, went to a business run by a gay man and they refused me service because I was straight I would be very insulted and outraged, however I'm not sure that's the government's problem.  Why do I need the government to fix the narrow mindedness and insulting habits of this one situation?   Word of mouth and my not returning to the business would hurt them and eventually they would probably go out of business anyway.  The problem solves itself.  

     This is not to say that government involvement has never been necessary.  In the south of 50 years ago a black person could not sit at the lunch counter of a Walgreens drugstore or even enter certain businesses.    That was an off-shoot of great bigotry and the horrific slave owning history of the south.  That situation required government action at that point in time, but as is often the case,  I'm not sure  laws enforcing business to allow everyone into their establishment are still necessary. Wouldn't word of  mouth from a bigoted business eventually sink them today?  Bad manners are bad manners and they will eventually cause the failure of the narrow minded, bigoted business.  

     In public places the law of the land should be to shield anyone from being refused access.  This includes corporations, ie  publicly traded companies (Walgreens, McDonalds, etc...) because by their very name they are a part of the public realm and all existing laws are warranted.  But do all "private" businesses have to be legislated and ordered to allow and serve customers they don't want ?   Isn't it their right to have bad manners and suffer the consequences that come with that?  The left always sees the government as the answer to a problem.,, but I seriously do not think that laws can make us all be  nice to each other.   Manners just as many other issues in life are better left to each citizen to decide.  Much of all this reminds me of George Orwell's novel "1984" where the government had such control over people that you couldn't even "think" things that were contrary to government edicts.  I sincerely care about all people and do my best to be fair in all situations but I can't agree with people who believe the government should be "fixing" us of our "bad thoughts".   Leave people alone and let them make their own mistakes.  Government action rarely is necessary to "fix" bad thoughts.  Hateful, bigoted, angry thoughts usually circle back around to fix the "thinker" as a natural consequence and often serves to teach the "thinker" a lesson or two. Such is the way of the Universe not Washington, DC.  The government brings conflict and lawsuits, and angry citizens and simmers distrust and dislike between people because it is simply not effective at controlling human behavior. Controlling private businesses in such a manner is not, in my humble opinion, the role of the government.