Putting the Covid19 Viral Outbreak in Perspective

 By CE "Chuck" Marshall

Putting it all in perspective 

     Dear wise readers, 

     Although it was tempting to write about the political conventions of this past couple of weeks, I honestly did not watch any of the Democratic convention and only watched a few of the speakers from the Republicans and the President's speech.  I haven't felt moved to write on them, but I will write on my own perspective from the center.  Stay tuned. 

     Meanwhile, the world is still agonizing over the Covid19 pandemic that has spread throughout the world.  Since it began many have been puzzled (myself included) by the reaction from society and from the world's governments.   Was -and is -shutting it all down really a rational and intelligent thing to do  ?   There have been other flu epidemics and the reaction was hardly close to how we're reacting to this one.  What's different ?  The differences are; 1) It's highly contagious and can spread through close contact very easily.  2)  It has a much higher mortality rate than your normal seasonal flu.  3% death rate VS 1/10th of 1 %-- so it's 10 to 30 times more lethal.  3) The media is using the pandemic as a boost to their bottom line as today's society increasingly avoids them, they need more and more aggressive and alarming stories to keep people watching.   4)  The political extremism in today's society has boiled over into how we all react to a real risk.  "Are you a kind and considerate Democrat or a brave and rational Republican ?"  seems to be what's implied.  Consequently, like everything else these days, it has become political.   

     As you can well imagine, I'm in the middle !  I wear a mask because I understand that this is alarming to a lot of people so I take their feelings into consideration.  I don't think the mask makes much of a difference though and the symbolism of the left- leaning media and our governments covering our mouths is a troublesome fact.  I keep social distance because that makes the most sense to preventing the spread,  but I do go out to dinner with very little anxiety.   I intend to get out to nearby Walt Disney World soon before things start getting busy again because I've been wanting to ride the new Star Wars ride but I've never been willing to wait 2-3 hours for a 3 minute ride.   The risk for COVID vs wasting two hours of my life standing in a line is worth it !   

     Let's take all this in perspective though.  What are your chances of dying from the COVID19 ?  Statistics and odds can be very confusing because it depends on what group you're talking about and the situation.   I already mentioned that the risk of dying from COVID is 3%, but keep in mind that's IF YOU GET IT !  If you're under 35, the mortality rate drops to 1%.   So here's an easily understood scenario;  The chance of catching COVID19 on a commercial airplane assuming all passengers are wearing masks is 1 in 4500 OR- .0002. (CNN study)  Let's compare that to other statistics.  

- Chance of taking a commercial flight (as an example of being in a cramped area where people cannot move)  and catching COVID19 and then dying (not accounting for age) ;  .00006% or 1 in  60,000 

- Chance of dying in a car accident in your lifetime- 1 in 115 or nearly  1% 

- Chance of being being struck and killed by lighting- 1 in 6,000,000

- Chance of developing and dying of cancer in your lifetime-  1 in 7 - 15% 

-Chance of developing and dying of heart disease 1 in 6- 17% 

- Chance that you will die of ANYTHING next year-  1 in 715 or .0014%

      My point is, if society is really so worried about dying that they are willing to see everything shut down- as happened for the entire country in April and continues in places like California-  then consider this;  your chances of reducing the death rate and suffering of your fellow human would be much more effective if you and all the people you know were encouraged to stop smoking, stop drinking, eat right, get regular exercise, and don't have sex with strangers.  Take care of your body and pay attention to your family's habits and stop deciding for the rest of the world that your fear of death justifies we be equally alarmed and hysterical such that we are prevented from living and moving around as free citizens.  

Have a good day.  

The Once Proud New York Times

What is China Guilty Of ?

    By Chuck Marshall 

      There was a long article from the Associated Press today elaborating on how the President is after China to blame for the Virus outbreak.  In my humble opinion, the article was focusing on the wrong offense- regardless of who is accusing who of what.   China shut down its entire country to control the spread of the Corona Virus in the manner that any autocratic tyranny would operate with no regard to the logic behind locking up healthy people.  The Communist party decided to shut down society and so it happened.  As a consequence,  Italy,  and then Spain and then most of Europe copied the Chinese government.   In our country the President and various states were immediately convinced that we must do as the Europeans did and shut  down society to protect us from ourselves.  The idea is that government has the answers and individuals are incapable of making decisions to protect themselves and their families.   

     While I agree that large events and groups should have been limited and  that 15 days to "flatten the curve" sounded logical at the beginning,  the government and fear overwhelmed logic and stretched this exercise into months of government overreach.  China is a communist country that does not have free elections and has made things such as going to church illegal.  Not because of a virus but because it threatens their power.   It's only guilty of behaving as the tyrannical government that it is.  

COVID19 Deaths and the Vietnam War

By Charles E. Marshall

                                   COVID19 Deaths and the Vietnam War 

      I've read several reports of how the COVID19 death toll now sits at a higher rate than the Vietnam War.  Not a terribly good comparison as the 50,000 that died in the Vietnam war were at the beginning of their lives and averaged around 19 or 20 while the COVID19 deaths are over the age of 44 by 95% and nearly 50% are over 75.  No life is unimportant, but I think we all agree we'd rather die at 80 than 19.   In addition the mostly young men in Vietnam were sent by humans to fight other humans on the other side of the world in a futile war that was largely political.   COVID19 was an invasive virus that came upon us through no particular person's fault, although it's often implied Trump could have somehow stopped it.   I think this is an important distinction because both parties and the media are so quick to send our young people off to war just because old leaders and their moneyed supporters could not come to some sort of rational plan for peace.   It's good for corporate and it's good for ratings, right ?   Will human life be so very important the next time egos and gobs of money are on the line or will we once again send our young people off to be mangled and butchered ?  COVID19 and wars.  I don't like the comparison